Sentiment Protocol: A Decentralized Protocol Leveraging Crowdsourced Wisdom

Anton Muehlemann

Abstract


The wisdom of the crowd is a valuable asset in today’s society. It is not only important in predicting elections but also plays an essential role in marketing and the financial industry. Having a trustworthy source of opinion can make forecasts more accurate and markets predictable. Until now, a fundamental problem of surveys is the lack of incentives for participants to provide accurate information. Classical solutions like small monetary rewards or the chance of winning a prize are often not very attractive for participants. More attractive solutions, such as prediction markets, face the issue of illegality and are often unavailable. In this work, we present a solution that unites the advantages from classical polling and prediction markets via a customizable incentivization framework. Apart from predicting events, this framework can also be used to govern decentralized autonomous organizations.


Full Text:

PDF OPEN REVIEW

References


Berg, J. E., Nelson, F. D., Rietz, T. A. “Prediction market accuracy in the long run.” International Journal of Forecasting. 24.2 285–300 (2008).

Berg, J. E., Rietz, T. A. “Prediction markets as decision support systems.” Information systems frontiers. 5.1 79–93 (2003).

Berk, J. B., Green, R. C. “Mutual fund flows and performance in rational markets.” Journal of political economy. 112.6 1269–1295 (2004).

Buterin, V. “An Introduction to Futarchy.” Ethereum Blog (2014) (accessed 30 October 2017) https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/08/21/introduction-futarchy/.

Buterin, V. “Ethereum: A Next-Generation Smart Contract and Decentralized Application Platform.” Ethereum (accessed 17 October 2017) http://ethereum.org/ethereum.html.

Cuende, L., Izquierdo, J. “Aragon white paper.” Aragon (2017) (accessed 17 October 2017) https://wiki.aragon.one/documentation/whitepaper/.

Epley, N., Keysar, B., Van Boven, L., Gilovich, T. “Perspective taking as egocentric anchoring and adjustment.” Journal of personality and social psychology. 87.3 327 (2004).

Ferri, R. “Any Monkey Can Beat the Market.” Forbes (2012) (accessed 13 August 2018) https://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/12/20/any-monkey-can-beat-the-market/.

Hanson, R. “Shall we vote on values, but bet on beliefs?” Journal of Political Philosophy. 21.2 151–178 (2013).

Hirshleifer, J. “The private and social value of information and the reward to inventive activity.” The American economic review. 61.4 561–574 (1971).

Koppelmann, M., George, S. “Gnosis whitepaper.” Gnosis (2017) (accessed 22 October 2017) https://gnosis.pm/assets/pdf/gnosis-whitepaper.pdf.

Lowenstein, R. “Why Buffett’s Million-Dollar Bet Against Hedge Funds Was a Slam Dunk.” Fortune (11 May 2016) (accessed 17 October 2017) http://fortune.com/2016/05/11/warren-buffett-hedge-

fund-bet/.

Nakamoto, S. “Bitcoin: A peer-to-peer electronic cash system.” (accessed 22 October 2017) https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf.

No Author. “Definition of Gambling.” dictionary.com (accessed 28 March 2018) http://www.dictionary.com/browse/gambling.

No Author. “Nationwide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2016.” Wikipedia (accessed 17 October 2017) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Polls_conducted_in_2016.

No Author. “Opinion polling for the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016.” Wikipedia (accessed 17 October 2017) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum.

No Author. “Revenue of market research and public opinion polling.” Statista (accessed 17 October 2017) https://www.statista.com/forecasts/409757/united-states-market-research-and-public-opinion-polling-revenue-forecast-naics-54191.

Parker, J. “Analysts Remain Uncertain on Tesla Stock amid Production Woes.” Market Realist (2017) (accessed 17 October 2017) https://marketrealist.com/2017/10/analysts-remain-uncertain-on-tesla-stock-amid-production-woes/.

Peterson, J., Krug, J. “Augur: a decentralized, open-source platform for prediction markets.” arXiv preprint (2015) https://arxiv.org/abs/1501.01042.

Schatsky, D., Muraskin, C. “Beyond Bitcoin: Blockchain is Coming to Disrupt Your Industry.” Deloitte (2015) (accessed 2 July 2018) https://www2.deloitte.com/insights/us/en/focus/signals-for-strategists/trends-blockchain-bitcoin-security-transparency.html.

Wattenhofer, R. The science of the blockchain. CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform (2016).




DOI: https://doi.org/10.5195/ledger.2018.113

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.




Copyright (c) 2018 Anton Muehlemann

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.